Demographics
Four Economies to Watch Through 2030
Where the world's next working-age growth is concentrated, and why it matters for global markets through 2030.
A "China+1" destination (or China Plus One) refers to a country that global companies select to build secondary manufacturing, assembly, or sourcing hubs alongside their primary operations in China. It is not a total exit from China. Instead, it is a risk-mitigation strategy.
Rising Stars
International
Young workforces and shifting supply chains are moving growth toward the Global South.
What Drives Each
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India ~1.48B people
China+1 Manufacturing
Large public infrastructure spending and digital public infrastructure, including the UPI payments network, position India as a leading China+1 destination.
🔌 Electronics💊 Pharmaceuticals💻 Tech Services☀️ Renewables💳 Fintech
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Indonesia ~288M people
Nickel and EV Supply Chain
Indonesia is channeling its nickel reserves into domestic battery processing, supported by a growing urban middle class and digital economy.
🔋 EV Batteries⛏️ Mineral Processing🛒 E-Commerce
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Vietnam ~102M people
Manufacturing Migration
An early beneficiary of supply chains moving beyond China, with a strong labor-cost-to-productivity ratio and trade access through the CPTPP.
🔌 Electronics🔬 Semiconductor Packaging🧵 Textiles🚢 Logistics
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Mexico ~133M people
USMCA Nearshoring
North American firms shortening supply chains from Asia are expanding industrial capacity in Mexico under the USMCA.
🚗 Automotive and EV⚙️ Industrial Machinery🩺 Medical Devices✈️ Aerospace
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant, 2026 estimates). Drivers and industries: Poolside editorial summary.
The Working-Age Advantage
International
How the population divides by age across five emerging economies.
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27.9%
under 15 in the Philippines, the youngest of the five
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68.2%
of working age in India, the highest share
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9.0%
aged 65 and older in Vietnam, the oldest profile
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Share of Population by Age, 2024
Under 15
Working age (15–64)
65 and older
| The Philippines | Median age 26.6 · ~118M |
Under 15: 27.9% · 15–64: 66.6% · 65+: 5.5%
| India | Median age 29.2 · ~1.48B |
Under 15: 24.6% · 15–64: 68.2% · 65+: 7.1%
| Mexico | Median age 30.0 · ~133M |
Under 15: 24.5% · 15–64: 67.2% · 65+: 8.2%
| Indonesia | Median age 30.7 · ~288M |
Under 15: 24.6% · 15–64: 68.1% · 65+: 7.3%
| Vietnam | Median age 33.9 · ~102M |
Under 15: 23.2% · 15–64: 67.7% · 65+: 9.0%
In all five economies, about two in every three people are of working age. That is the core of the demographic advantage heading into 2030.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant). Age shares are 2024 estimates. Median age and population are 2026 estimates. Shares may not total 100 percent due to rounding.
Bonus Markets
International
Three more regions where a young population is shaping growth.
Median Age, 2026 (Years)
| Uganda | 17.1 | |
| Philippines | 26.6 | |
| Saudi Arabia | 29.7 |
The Philippines ~118M people
An English-proficient workforce supports business process outsourcing, consumer demand, and remittance inflows.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Sovereign wealth is funding renewables, AI, and logistics under Saudi Vision 2030 and parallel UAE national strategies.
East Africa
Kenya is a digital services hub built on mobile money such as M-Pesa. Uganda has one of the youngest populations in the world.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant, 2026 estimates). Regional drivers: Poolside editorial summary.
Sources
Key Terms
- China+1 (China Plus One): A risk-mitigation strategy in which global companies add manufacturing, assembly, or sourcing operations in at least one other country while keeping their primary operations in China. It is not a full exit from China. A "China+1 destination" is a country selected for that secondary base.
- MIT Sloan School of Management. What Is China + 1? Working Definitions series.
Demographic Data
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024. Medium variant, 2026 estimates. Source for all median age and population figures.
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO. 9).
India
- Alonso, C., Bhojwani, T., Hanedar, E., Prihardini, D., Una, G., and Zhabska, K. (2023). Stacking up the Benefits: Lessons from India's Digital Journey. IMF Working Paper No. 23/78. International Monetary Fund.
Indonesia
- East Asia Forum (2023). Reassessing Indonesia's Nickel Downstreaming Policy.
- The National Bureau of Asian Research. Indonesia's Nickel Export Ban: Impacts on Supply Chains and the Energy Transition.
Vietnam
- East Asia Forum (2018). Vietnam's Economic Ebbs and Flows. Includes World Bank analysis of CPTPP tariff effects.
Mexico
- Brookings Institution. USMCA and Nearshoring: The Triggers of Trade and Investment Dynamics in North America.
- Taylor, C. O. (2026). Reshoring, Nearshoring, and North American Supply Chains. Working Paper. Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy.
The Philippines
- Tetangco, A. M., Jr. (2012). Maximising the Benefits of Remittances from Overseas Filipinos. Remarks by the Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. BIS Central Bankers' Speeches. Bank for International Settlements.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE
- Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Vision 2030: Overview.
- United Arab Emirates Government. UAE National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031.
East Africa
- Suri, T., and Jack, W. (2016). The Long-Run Poverty and Gender Impacts of Mobile Money. Science, 354(6317), 1288–1292.